OK, not exactly. It’s more like best YTD ever. And that’s only for US/Global portfolio.
But I wanted a title for this post that’s a continuation of:
You know… kinda like how some stamps come in a set or a series.
A picture speaks a mod-zillion words:
I’ve said at the 22% mark that I’d be happy to close the year with that sorta returns.
Then, I’ve said at the 28% mark at end Jan, that I probably should close out all positions and do nothing for the rest of the year.
Yet, as of end Feb 2019:
US/Global Portfolio ROI is a very pleasing 29.50% YTD.
NAV gain YTD till end Feb 2019, taking into account a withdrawal of USD 22,088.60 made, is USD 128,387.87.
As seen in the chart above, the benchmark indices’ ROI are all hovering just below the 12% mark, with EFA being the worst and SPX doing the best amongst the 3.
So the outperformance is an amazing errr 17-18% or so.
And let’s not even bother to talk about the perennially under performing STI (which is like <5% I think)
I always prefer to look at SPX since that’s the broadest barometer of the US market and is pretty much the index itself (it’s an ETF of the S&P 500 index).
I’ve already previously discussed about my positions that have resulted in this outperformance:
The 1 bugbear that hasn’t done well is CTL, and it continued to underperform and drag onto my returns. The position is sizable, so the other guys in there must’ve done so amazingly well so as to mask CTL’s drag.
I continue to hold onto that position, and continue to sell CTL options on both sides of the equation, depending on the market conditions.
As seen in the chart above, it hasn’t been 1 way up.
There was a period where there was a massive drop from a +27% or so, down to a +10% or so, in pretty much just a couple of days. 2 horrible days specifically.
The reason for that lies in a new position I’ve initiated: Wirecard.
You see, I’ve been taking profit in most of my positions, and as of the end Jan 2019, held a substantial amount of USD. Since then, I’ve been looking out for stuff to deploy capital into.
Yet I’m cautious, cos the markets have rallied relentlessly thus far in 2019. Everybody seems to have forgotten the world’s problems. China’s data hasn’t been great, US employment numbers are worrying, and their debt numbers aren’t even starting to improve despite Trump’s promises. Volatility and VIX have been trending down down down. Everybody’s happy.
I’m happy too. But it’s more like errrr happy-skeptical.
After looking long and hard enough, I decided to deploy a substantial bit of capital into Wirecard, with their recent troubles.
And as always, I don’t always get to buy at the absolute lows, and as Wirecard shares continued plunging, it dragged down the overall ROI.
All’s well ends well though, and the subsequent recovery provided a significant boost to bring the overall ROI to the all time YTD high of 29.50%.
Now, when I talk about Wirecard shares here, I’m really talking about a direct equity position in the germany DAX listed company, not the ADRs of the company. So it’s listed in Germany, and there’s currency exposure risks to Euros in this instance.
Now, I continue to hold onto a sizable long exposure to WDI (Wirecard), but I’ve already started selling some far OTM calls on those positions, taking into account the strong recovery.
I’d have really wished to have a Cinderella fairytale ending here whereby the allegations are completely false, FT reporter goes to jail or something, and the price shoots up to 250 euros (the target price for some analysts).
Yet, I’ve SOME reservations.
I do think the next earnings release on the 4th April will surprise the markets and provide a further catalyst/boost to the share price. And I’d normally have the guts and capital to plonk down for the long run (or however long it takes for a recovery)… but in this instance, I’ve my reservations cos of the…
Singapore Police Force.
Yep. When the CAD department of SPF is involved, it lends a lot of weight to the short side.
And as always, I don’t say this or put undue emphasis on this without having done the necessary DD and having some real concrete data to back up my thoughts.
In this instance… what better way to understand the thought process and how it works…. than to check with someone within the CAD itself?
I reached out to a friend who’s sufficiently high ranking enough within the CAD:
There’s other info like the approximate duration of an investigation and the processes etc but that’s not going to be shared here.
Basically, I do have faith in the way CAD conducts an investigation and this kinda puts a dampener on my wirecard long thesis.
I might be right in my long thesis, but I can’t be sure how the markets react to new developments when CAD probes deeper.
As mentioned, I’m currently still deeply long as I think the odds are still in my favor. Any investigation of wrongdoing, would more likely impact on the individuals involved, rather than the company itself.
In any case, if you’ve been following, BaFin (which is Germany’s equivalent of MAS), has stepped in to ban short selling of wirecard, putting the German authorities firmly behind Wirecard’s management.
We’re only in the early innings of a long drawn out battle, so it’s interesting to watch.
Already, wirecard has added almost 10k in euros to my portfolio (paper profits), and I expect this to further increase in March and April.
Yes, it’s not a plain vanilla straightforward long case here, but…. well, if I wanna add any further to the 29.5% ROI this year, I figured I’d have to find really unique situations and take concentrated positions and come out the better of it.
Also, I’d like to give a shoutout to Southern Investigative Reporting Foundation, for their amazing investigative journalism. OK, they did a negative piece on Wirecard, and that places them on the other side of the equation from me… but it’s still amazing work.
Check it out:
Plus, I think they can be right… and I’d still be profitable in my investment due to the option premiums arising from the volatility created from their work. LOL.
OK, that’s about it. I’d have written more about my wirecard DD, but others before me have done similar if not better work, and I thought the only thing I have to add is my understanding and investigations on the CAD side, since not 1 wirecard report/post/analyst report/journalist’s piece has spoken about that. And it’s understandable why, cos these ang mohs don’t even know what’s CAD to begin with.
(Plus I’d like to keep some aces up my sleeves myself. Heh)