It’s been 2 months since the last update, and frankly, I’m just going to sorta rush through this post as well. Don’t intend to spend too much time here. So here goes.
As a continuation of the last post (TTI’s Portfolio Performance – May 2019 + Avenue Therapeutics Updates):
Total portfolio value in SG markets is SGD 291,294.
As stated at the end of 2018, I set out to shift my activities into global markets. The direction is clear, and I think I’ve executed on my plan thus far, shrinking the SG portfolio part to a fraction of what it used to be, as I moved capital into some of my biggest ideas at the start of 2019.
Again, nothing much to talk about here, the bond portfolio is approximately SGD 550,000. I’m being very conservative in my accounting here, preferring to not include all the coupons that are already due and accumulated, since they are cumulative and payable at the conclusion of the term.
This means that come the day of reckoning, when the bond is finally due, I’d be expecting a blissfully big, obscenely obese, grotesquely glorious bump up in this component.
Yes, in the mood for some alliteration there.
US / Global Markets
I’d let the charts do the talking as usual:
ROI has declined in the past 2 months, which has been rough. Compared to the high of 45% thereabouts, it’s been quite a drop.
Still, it’s sitting pretty at 28.07%, and if you’d offered that to me at the start of 2019, I’d take it without even giving it much thought.
Portfolio Size (US) has ballooned to USD 984,360.63, with YTD capital gains, excluding any cash infusions sitting at USD 117,464.70.
This is at least, part of the reason for the drop in overall ROI. The cash drag is serious, as the portfolio size has more than doubled since the start of the year, and I haven’t always had the chance to deploy the capital. Even as I type this, most of the capital hasn’t found a home sweet home just yet.
Yet, I make no excuses.
Cash drag is an excuse.
The other major reason for the dip in YTD ROI, is an ill-timed (well, actually, this is just a figure of speech, I didn’t even time it) short bet on Beyond Meat (BYND).
Having shorted BYND when it was trading at P/S of around…. I can’t rem exactly… around the ridiculously crazily insane number of 80x or something, I thought this madness must surely come to an end.
Yet, the repeated short squeeze due to the tiny float meant I had to throw in the towel and cover.
Fortunately, having sold options on both sides, (both calls and puts), the premiums have buffeted the losses nicely. And with the recently ER and subsequently secondary issue, BYND is FINALLY about to go my way.
Well, the float is still ridiculously tiny, even with the secondary issue, so I’m not outright shorting it just yet. Learnt my lesson here.
My guess is that the share price can’t exactly tank from here (It’s trading at USD 175 right now), but neither can it move up significantly since the secondary issue is at USD 160.
Coupled with the high IV right now, it’s a great time to be selling options on both ends with a WIDEEEE leeway.
Anyhow, back to the chart above.
There’s a more important lesson to be gleaned here, so much so that I’d reproduce the chart here again:
For a few days, the blue line (which is TTI, yours truly), actually dipped below that of the green line (SPX).
Well, of course I don’t consider myself infallible, but oh come on, how often do you see a 20%++ ROI lose out to a passive index?!
Yet, there we go.
SPX is on a roar this year. Despite dipping this week, it’s still around the 18% ROI mark.
That’s pretty crazy for a totally passive instrument.
I’ve seen, read, heard of many folks waving their successes around this year like a light sabre. (Most of which are not even calculated properly)
Well, hello guys, come back to reality. A semi idiot chucking his funds into SPX on the 01/01/2019, would’ve beaten many such geniuses, despite not having read a single financial statement or drawn any squiggly lines.
A rising tide floats all boats. Float it enough, and some boats may even think they can fly.
It’s just not as easy as what the typical retail investor thinks.
But ah well, I have resolved to not concern myself with all this. It’s hard enough bothering about my own portfolio.
Alright. Back to some math:
Taking a USD-SGD forex rate of 1.37165,
Total portfolio value sits at SGD 2,191,492
(I’ve decided to change the format of previous reportings slightly by rounding out the cents. As the portfolio size increase, too many numbers make it confusing)
In my previous post, I spoke about real estate. I’ve since done quite a bit of work here… but with little results to show for. Many viewings, no real deal that I can find.
Yes, I’m extremely particular, but what’d you expect? I’ve just 1 silver bullet here, better make it count.
Anyhow, in the midst of my DD, I’ve come to realize that the last “en bloc fever” was around 1 – 1.5years ago, and many of the previous owners are now probably still flush with cash.
And these same guys are now in the market, standing on the “demand” side, and providing TTI with stiff competition.
Yea, well, I’m a loner and like to be in the “blue ocean”. Everyone else pls go ahead, I’d just stay out of this “red ocean” until the crowd thins a bit.
So there. I’m still sitting pretty and waiting for the crash that increasingly looks like it’d never come.
(If you haven’t realized, I’m referencing a very famous business book here)
Now, the 2nd part of this post is more exciting.
It’s just an…. announcement.
The Thanos of global macro is returning…..
This is 1 of the most read posts ever on SG TTI:
Actually, it IS the most read one, despite me writing it 2.5yrs back, dating from Feb 2017.
Well well, guess what?
Asia Genesis Asset Management is coming back!
(OK, right now, I can’t rem if the newly incorporated company is Asia Genesis Asset Management or is it Asia Genesis Fund Management… we did have a couple of drinks when he told me the news……….)
But yes. The Thanos of global macro funds, Mr Chua Soon Hock, is coming back after a…. 10 yr hiatus.
And don’t bother googling it, the news is so hot, it’s not even off the press yet.
It’s interesting cos I always thought that if you are at a certain level, it’s always impossible to stay away forever.
Where’s the fun and excitement right?
So yeah, welcome back.