ThumbTack Fund Report 7 – 大难不死,必有后福

"大难不死,必有后福" = "If you survive a major calamity, you'd certainly have great fortune subsequently"

ThumbTack Fund (TTF) was incepted at the beginning of Feb 2020, right before the pandemic became a real thing. On the very 1st month in Feb 2020, the fund got a -29.59% hit, and this was followed by another bright red -26.25% in Mar 2020, which cumulatively led to a nightmarish -50%-in-2-months start for TTF.

This is the investing equivalent of Freddy Krueger from nightmare on elm’s street appearing in your dreams.

That was the calamity part.

Exactly 1 year on, this is the great fortune part.

YEAR TO DATE (2021): (which is really just January 2021!)

SPY: +3.70%

VT: +4.40%

STI: +2.23%

TTF: +14.55%

SINCE INCEPTION (FEB 2020):

SPY: +22.60%

VT: +23.44%

STI: -7.76%

TTF: +117.69%

TTF’s NAV: USD 408,474.88

Deposits/Withdrawals: USD 239,227.83

Nett capital gains since inception: USD 169,247.05

At this current rate, I think TTF’s NAV would cross the million dollar mark within another 1 year, with the help of some capital injections too. Yep, that should be the logical target by 2022.

Well, if Biden’s going to pump another close to 2 trillion dollars into the markets and waste American dollars, I might as well use my wits and grab as much of this helicopter money while I can.

Note that this list cannot be taken at face value, as some are short positions. Also, there are some long positions that are structured solely via options and hence, may not appear individually within the top holdings list, but are collectively, a major component of the portfolio.

OK… don’t ask me what’s “Real Estate”.

I have no idea what in my portfolio constitutes “Real Estate”. Maybe it’s GameStop positions, since their intrinsic value is only how much residual value their physical stores retain? hehehe.

Ok, I’m going to side track a bit:

Notice how the 2 green lines are almost moving 100% in tandem with each other? The 2 green lines are the SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) and VT (Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund ETF).

I started getting curious why they’d match each other to a T, cos afterall, SPY is US S&P 500 index ETF, whereas VT is supposed to be benchmarked against the WORLD’s indices.

So I went to check up what are the components of VT:

Month-end 10 largest holdings

(13.70% of total net assets) as of 12/31/2020 

1Apple Inc.
2Microsoft Corp.
3Amazon.com Inc.
4Alphabet Inc.
5Facebook Inc.
6Tesla Inc.
7Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd.
8Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
9Johnson & Johnson
10Tencent Holdings Ltd.
https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/VT

Ahhh. Geez, I dunno why is VT a world index. It looks damn American to me.

I guess mystery solved. Is it any wonder that the 2 green lines are like 1 uber fat green line on the chart?!

RISK:

I don’t typically consider stuff like risk adjusted returns when thinking of investing theses, but since IB gives this data, I’d include it.

Apparantly, a sharpe ratio of 1 is considered acceptable to good.

Sharpe ratio of 2 is considered very good

Sharpe ratio of 3 or more is considered excellent

Sharpe ratio of <1 is considered “sub-optimal”

So in the past 30 days… not sure why so tbh, but whatever I’ve been doing in Jan 2021 is considered god-like in the Sharpe ratio world. Hahaha. Whatever that means.


TTI’s 5 Generals

New list, new names except for the Chief Of Army. That dude stays on top since inception.

  1. Broadcom (AVGO)
  2. Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND)
  3. Nio Inc (NIO)
  4. Alibaba Group (BABA, 9988)
  5. Facebook (FB) —–> (tough toss up between this and PSTH)

I’d add some disclaimers/rules.

1stly, and this should be obvious, this list obviously doesn’t state my entry prices, it doesn’t state my time frame, it doesn’t state my rationale, and it also doesn’t state how a long position is structured (it may be a long via derivatives instead of the equity)

2ndly, the names on this list may change at any 1 time. I take no responsibility to update the status… at all. Much less in real time.


That’s all for this report. I’m excited for the next few upcoming weeks as I’m scaling into an opportunity that I think will give TTF massive returns and pull further away from the benchmarks. It’s always exciting when you find something like this, which is not that often.

You won’t be able to explain it, it’s like love. You will know it when you find it.

For concentrated portfolios like TTF, you don’t need to get everything right all the time. Most things I do just have to be ok-ish, and not massive mistakes… then that 1 or 2 things every year that you show hand in are the ones that you absolutely have to be spot on correct. If it’s a mistake, the year’s gone. You can’t get back from that.

That’s the life of concentration, and the subsequent price to pay. (with a correspondingly devastatingly sweet reward if you get it right)

Anyhow, CNY is right around the corner, here’s wishing all readers a prosperous (what else? lol) Year of the Ox!

Huat ar!

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