Month: February 2022

ThumbTack Fund Report 11 – 2 Year Anniversary

TTF was incepted in Feb 2020, so this month marks the 2 year anniversary for this baby fund. I guess it’s timely to check the data and see how TTF has performed in the past 2 years.

But first, some very much overdue thanks and accolades are in order:

I read about the long queues for bak kwa during the CNY on mothership:

https://mothership.sg/2022/01/lim-chee-guan-queue/

Heng, I don’t need to queue to enjoy some high end atas bak kwa, cos Kai Xiang from uSmart Securities (https://www.usmartsecurities.com/en) sent me some:

This is NOT an advert for Lim Chee Guan k, but I gotta say that their bak kwa really does taste different. Different cuts of the meat perhaps, but definitely not so fatty and not so greasy; even an uncultured, non-foodie guy like me can immediately tell there’s a difference.

I still won’t queue up for it though. It’s crazy. Singaporeans like to queue for everything like their time is not worth anything.

Also, obviously I’m kinda delayed in updating about this cos all this happened just before CNY.

On a different note, I also received a parcel on CNY eve from none other than my TTI associate/buddy, sent all the way from JB:

Eat all the birds’ nest and abalone until I think my lifespan got extended by a few hours.

Heh, thanks SC.

Finally, my friends at AP Floral (http://apfloral.com.sg/) also sent me some flowers. Look at how chio it looks:

Now, it gets delivered to my office, and sometimes, I’d just leave it there for decoration. But this one is so chio that I brought them home. There was 1 year where they sent me a bouquet for my birthday with some “ball chrysanthemums” which also look very chio. I brought those home as well. Too bad no photo of it, but they look so chio that I thought they’re not real. But they are.

Can’t find it on their Instagram (https://www.instagram.com/apfloral/?hl=en) but it looks something like this:

This time, the CNY one comes with golden pineapples for maximum huat-ness effect:


All the golden pineapples seem to be working though, cos TTF’s huat-ing away:

YTD (2022):

SPY: -6.08%

VT: -4.43%

STI: +9.53%

TTF: +4.77%

SINCE INCEPTION (FEB 2020), ANNUALIZED:

SPY: +19.29%

VT: +15.41%

STI: + 4.08%

TTF: +34.18%

For reference, the last fund report:

Note: Returns are MWRs, all figures in USD

TTF’s NAV: USD 1,411,084.92

Deposits/Withdrawals: USD 1,072,726.68

Nett capital gains since inception: USD 338,358.24

EPILOGUE

Surprise surprise… STI has been the runaway leader for 2022 thus far, coming in at 9.5%, which is a MASSIVE outperformance compared with S&P’s -6.08%. Heaven and Earth.

As for TTF, I’m pleased with the +4.77% cos with zero holdings in SG, it’s a miracle to just stay in the green YTD. I’m kinda dancing between raindrops and trying my best not to get wet.

Longer term, I’m also pleased with TTF’s annualized +34.18% MWR.

Dunno how long I can keep this up for, but if I can compound at this approximately 35% rate, it’d add up to some mind blowing NAV in 30 years.

How mind blowing? hmmm, actually I dunno. Wait, let me go excel spreadsheet it. Cos I’m legit curious now…….

Tadah! LOL…

woo hoo. USD 11bil? In 30yrs, I’d be 70. With science and medicine then, 70 will feel like the current 50…

Ok, I think I will be ok with this deal! Give it to me now!

Oh but wait, this doesn’t even include any capital injections along the way!

Gosh, imagine that, plus all that compounding.

COMMENTARY

In my last TTF report, I wrote:

“Cautious… really cautious. Much of the craziness in the investing world in the past 2 years stem from simply money printing. When this amount of liquidity floods the system, everyone’s having a good time. If you have a single digit % return in 2021, it almost feels like a loss, ain’t it? This is not normal. Neither is it sustainable.”

“Currently, markets are pricing in at least 3 rate hikes in 2022.

Personally, I think it’d have to be even more. Remember a time when 2% fed funds rate is considered rather low? Well, if the Fed raises by just a standard 0.25% each time, we’d be looking at at least 8 hikes, just to reach this 2% mark!”

“In this regard, I’ve been positioning TTF to have a higher weightage in short positions for 2022.”

My view reflects the postures in my portfolio since 2021 Q4.

Aside from that, my top 5 generals have performed admirably well since the start of 2022, with all beating S&P, except for ASML.

This was my top 5 generals list:

  1. DISCK (going to be merged with Warner)
  2. V
  3. BABA, 9988
  4. Tencent (700)
  5. ASML

Top general DISCK especially, led the charge this year with a +23.34% gain:

I haven’t sold a share and continue to hold my position.

General No. 2, Visa, also did pretty well, remaining in the green YTD with a +3% gain:

Even General no.3, aka the beating boy of 2021, BABA, did pretty well:

General no.5, ASML was the only underperformer amongst the list:

At a -18.22%, it trails S&P YTD.

The recent volatility in the market has thrown up several interesting opportunities IMO. It’s only been 1.5 months, but I think I’d soon have to change this top 5 generals list.

I’m not ready to provide an update to the general list though, DD takes time. But most certainly, I think with huge volatility, there’d be a lot of mispricing.

And mispricing = opportunity.


In previous years, partly due to chronic underperformance of most large enough active managers against a passive index, and partly due to the crazy money printing from the Fed, the world was awash with liquidity, and simultaneously, we saw a continued, significant and rapid wave of capital rushing into passively managed funds.

ETF investing and other similar tracker funds became more and more popular: And for good reason.

For most retail investors, investing is just a game with odds that’s heavily stacked against us. (Unless you believe Nancy Pelosi is really such a talented stock picker…)

But imo, all that attraction of passive investing leads to opportunities in selected spaces for the skillful, sharp and talented active investor to exploit.

In my previous report: (https://thumbtackinvestor.wordpress.com/2022/01/07/thumbtack-fund-report-10-hello-2022/), I’ve already written about a very specific example (SEAC). I don’t intend to share another right now.

But logically, if more and more active money is flooding into passive spaces, there’s a higher likelihood for mispricing in under noticed companies. No, I’m not talking about things that everybody has heard of: not stuff like your FB, or BABA, or MSFT or TSLA or MU, or wadever that rolls off your tongue. It’d be stuff that is little noticed, and probably not even on the radar of larger institutional monies.

I have every intention to hunt in these tiny little creaks and fully exploit the market’s follies.


Oh yes, if you noticed something looking different here, apparently yours truly TTI is now a “notable nominee” according to InvestingNote, hence the “digital award” aka logo on the right.

IN also sent me a “digital plaque”:

I get that these are all marketing efforts for IN: I run a business too, these are low lying fruits to garner. It doesn’t cost me much in terms of effort, and I know IN’s team, and they seem like nice folks, so there we go, I’m happy to support.

TBH, I am kinda tickled by “Notable Nominee” though. I’m imagining the marketing team sitting around a table and brainstorming, “eh, how about those who didn’t win aka the losers huh? What do we call them? Esp that thumbtack guy. He didn’t even do the writeup thing to try to garner votes.”

“Nominees”

“Yeah, but just nominees meh? Sounds a bit loser lei.”

“Then u go find another nicer word that makes it sound more zai and put it in front la. My england not so good. But find something that starts with “N” la, got alliteration, it’d sound better. Like “Hulk Hogan.” “

“Nice? Noble? Noticeable? Natural?”

“<absent mindedly> ok, noted”

“Huh, ok, u say one huh. Notable.”

And that’s how “Notable Nominee” came about.

Also, I’d like to take this chance to announce that the digital plaque and the digital award u see above, are now for sale as NFTs.

Come on, come and buy from me. I accept cash only k. It’s innovative.

It’d be the 1st ever NFT sold in cash. You’d have bragging rights. CNBC will report it. You’d be the envy of all NFT owners worldwide, since you’d be at the forefront of such a revolutionary idea!

Come on, pls email me at thumbtackinvestor@gmail.com to buy. Each one is for sale at $50,000.

That’s in USD, but just for the next 24hours, I’d take SGD too.

Someone commented on IN that the $7.2mil of NFTs that the sexy model girl (shit, momentarily forgot her name now) sold is worth it cos it’s like a bet on her future or something along those lines. Cos you could use that NFT of her in any way in future, and even if it’s damaging to her image, she can’t get you to take it down cos that’s your “asset”.

Something along those lines.

I don’t quite buy that train of thought, but ok ok, wadever. Just buy my NFT pls. Let me pitch it to you.

This “notable nominee” plaque is a bet on TTI’s future too.

As I’ve illustrated above, with a 35% CAGR for the next 30years, I’d have at least $11 billion, making me a bona fide billionaire, joining the ranks of Buffett and Musk and Bezos and that currently unknown kid who’s not born yet but will find a cure to cancer in 20 years using NFTs only.

Now, imagine that. Imagine you have an NFT of the 1st ever “Notable Nominee” award aka consolation prize aka loser award that Elon Musk won 20 years ago.

How much is that worth?

Like seriously. If there’s such a thing, I’m sure it’d be worth a lot a lot more than $50k.

Hell, even Elon Musk’s detractors will buy it, just to post it on reddit somewhere to troll him! I think David Einhorn will be the 1st in line!

So there, don’t say I bojio. While stocks last.

Remember, I only have 2 such NFTs for sale.

Cash only!

P.S. I’d throw in a sexy shirtless pic NFT if u want.