Month: August 2017

SGX Bull Charge 2017! + Other Recent Developments

Nope, this post is not about the bull market. It’s mostly about SGX’s annual charity run.

596) SGX Bull Charge Run.jpg

But in the true spirit of SG TTI’s typical posts, let me 1st talk about some frivolous stuff, updates etc.

In a recent post, I talked about 2 recent additions to TTI’s portfolio:

TTI Bought >$100K Worth Of Equities In July… Howard Marks’ Memo Better Don’t Come True Right Now!

This was broken down into 2 parts and republished on NextInsight:

https://www.nextinsight.net/story-archive-mainmenu-60/939-2017/11644-dutech-why-i-bought-another-100-000-shares-on-price-fall

https://www.nextinsight.net/story-archive-mainmenu-60/939-2017/11646-geo-energy-resources-why-i-bought-another-100-000-shares-on-price-fall

Well, at least for now, it does seem that I’ve managed to buy very close to the bottom (something that doesn’t happen very often!), as both have rallied/recovered substantially, literally the day after I posted.

Geo is up 16.7% and Dutech is up 5.6% since the post was published barely a week ago.

Some have asked me if I have since divested. The answer is no. I’m looking for much larger gains, triggered by what I identify as specific catalysts. As long as the thesis is still intact, I’d stay on course.

For Geo Energy, I believe my superior, in depth analysis and understanding of the industry gives me a competitive advantage over the markets. Thus far, everything is playing out as how I’ve described it in earlier posts: a much tighter coal  market in China following summer demands, recovering and rapidly rising Indo coal prices, Geo’s completion of TBR acquisition. Upcoming catalysts would be superior Q2 results that beat market expectations, higher coal volume and ASPs compared to market expectations and an offtake agreement for TBR.

oh oh! and I almost forgot. For those who are shorting Geo Energy going into Q2 ERs (Most have been returned but I still have 50,000 shares loaned out to shortists), I only have 2 words for you:

Clyde Russell”

If you don’t know what I’m talking about, add a “coal” to that and google it.

I know my stuff.

For Dutech Holdings, the fear is still palpable. I’m watching for a catalyst in Q2 results, with profitability impacted, but yet higher than market expectations. I believe the market was pricing in losses, and if Q2 is still profitable, we’d see further recovery. Everybody knows Dutech Holdings is a superior business, with an excellent management. Over time, I see their hardware side gradually going downhill, but their software side coming on as a big part of the business in future. Margins for the software side has always been high, so overall the business margins will be maintained. This will probably take time to play out though, as the decline in High Security is industry wide and likely to continue for several quarters, while on the Business Solutions side, it takes time to integrate acquired businesses and turn them around.

LTC Corporation has also risen rather strongly of late, probably spurred by news of their 40% acquisition in Regata ( a Malaysian property developer):

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/LTC_SGX_JV_GCSBFinal.ashx?App=Announcement&FileID=450266

I had a short discussion about this on valuebuddies.com for those who are interested. There’s not much info released on the deal, so you’d have to do some digging if you’re interested to do DD on this.

I previously added 20,200 shares of LTC Corporation sometime in April at $0.6, and with the rising share price, I’d be taking a look at this again when results are released as it is now a much larger proportion of my overall portfolio.

593) IN post on LTC.jpg

The share price is now $0.665, and that works out to be a 10.8% gain in 4 months (since April 2017), not too shabby.

InvestingNote is a great place for some leisurely entertainment if you’re casually investing. Tons of casual chit chatting there. But honestly, it’s kinda unproductive, and there is rarely any actionable info, so I’d be spending less time there and focus on using my time more productively.

For serious investing ideas and analyses, I’d much prefer to stick to reading NextInsight and/or discussing on Valuebuddies.com.

Both sites don’t get as much updates as I’d like, but the content on both are more serious, much more well researched, with what I believe are stronger, more knowledgeable and more serious investors participating.

In fact, to fast track some of my DD sometimes, I’d make enquiries on valuebuddies. More often than not, someone with more in depth knowledge than myself on that subject matter would quickly clear my doubt. You’d be surprised: there are a lot of Crouching Tigers and Hidden Dragons there.

So in my mind:

NextInsight = Straits Times

Valuebuddies = Channelnewsasia

InvestingNote = Wanbao

SeekingAlpha = Financial Times

(I use SeekingAlpha to get ideas/opinions for international stocks, but take it with a pinch of salt. Some are just poorly researched opinions with controversial titles trying to attract clicks. Authors get rewarded for clicks, not for their actual investing acumen)


On a different note, of late, I’ve been receiving a lot of emails asking to do “collaborations” and “sponsored guest posts” etc. The thing is, these enquiries are mostly from foreign readers/outfits, and I’m really not sure what to make of it. I don’t know what they have in mind.

Maybe someone who knows can let me know what’s going on, and why I’m getting a barrage of these in the past week or so, when I previously have had none. (Bear in mind I’m an IT idiot)

594) emails to TTI.jpg

595) emails to TTI.jpg

Well, I know how advertising works, but SG TTI is a focused, investing blog. Not sure what these non-investing entities have in mind. I also don’t do any SEO, neither am I interested to start.

Please enlighten me if any of you know.

Long time readers of SG TTI would also notice a nice little medal at the right side, just added recently.

Actually, I received an email from Feedspot  (http://blog.feedspot.com/) about that some time ago, congratulating SG TTI on having being awarded some medal for being prolific enough. They came up with this list by compiling Facebook fans, Twitter followers and other metrics like google search ranking, mentions, quality and consistency of posts and their own editorial team’s assessment.

And since SG TTI has absolutely zero presence on Facebook and Twitter (like I said, I’m not a great user of tech!), it’s a real accolade to be on this list.

Still, tbh, I ignored the mail initially.

TTI is focused on identifying and capitalizing great investment ideas, not coming up with a great investment site. There’s obviously a big difference. I wanna be a great investor, not a great writer of investing ideas.

After a week, I did get a follow up email on this though, and since they asked again nicely, why not add it to SG TTI?

604) Feedspot.jpg

It does add colour to an otherwise drab site appearance, doesn’t it?


OK, now, THIS is the main purpose for this post.

SGX’s Annual Charity Bull Charge Run 2017

598) Bull charge photo.jpg

I’ve been approached by SGX to help write a post to advertise/market/promote SGX’s charity run 2017:

https://bullcharge.sgx.com/

Now, let me be clear about this right off the bat: this is NOT a paid advertorial. This post is entirely for the sake of promoting a charitable event that I personally feel is for a great cause.

SGX is also NOT getting any proceeds from running their charity events.

In fact, if I understood it correctly, SGX is footing the bill for running and organising all their charity events, yet any proceeds received goes 100% into supporting their charities. They don’t use any of the proceeds received to offset the costs of running the activities.

(Lilin from SGX, please correct me if I’m wrong in saying this)

599) Event Details.jpg

The event is taking place on the 17th November 2017 (it’s a Friday!) from 4pm – 930pm.

There are 3 categories to participate in:

600) Event categories.jpg

The obstacle team challenge is something new for this year. Apparently it’s a run with inflatable obstacles, making it different and a lot more interesting compared to your typical run.

As you can see, the runs are pretty casual: this isn’t a competitive event, the vibe I get is that this is more of a relaxed, charity event, and a huge opportunity for networking and socializing.

If running isn’t your cup of tea, there’s the festival village:

601) SGX festival village.jpg

Free popcorn, food, drinks, live performances etc.

In previous years, there are also lots of games and activities to participate in, not sure if there’ll be those this year. But it sure looks fun.

To be honest, it seems to me that this run is targeted towards corporate entities (SG registered only), so members of the public who want to sign up on their own will probably find it difficult.

At least from my understanding, sign ups are via the companies, who then send their employees to participate.

EDIT: I’m just told that members of the public can also form a team of 4 to participate in the Obstacle Challenge, with a donation of $1,000.

The sponsorship rates for 2017 are:

602) Sponsorship packages.jpg

These are the sponsors for last year’s edition:

597) Sponsors.jpg

Wow. Noble was a gold bull sponsor.

Not sure if they’d be doing the same this year with their funding problems.

And why is DBS the only local bank on the list last year? Where’s UOB and OCBC?

So who are the beneficiaries of this charity fund raising?

603) Beneficiaries.jpg

All proceeds will go to 5 beneficiaries:

Autism Association (Singapore)

AWWA Ltd

Community Chest

Fei Yue Community Services

Shared Services for Charities.

Right now, SG TTI has 10 complimentary race entries for the 5km Mass Run event to give away. Anyone who’s interested in attending this event, simply email me at thumbtackinvestor@gmail.com to indicate your interest.

Team Thumbtack will also likely send representatives.

So see you guys there!

Addendum To Previous Post…

This is an addendum to my previous post (which was just yesterday actually):

TTI Bought >$100K Worth Of Equities In July… Howard Marks’ Memo Better Don’t Come True Right Now!

I’ve received quite a number of queries regarding options, particularly on how I structured them. While I’ve replied every email and comment, I’d just summarize and clarify some points in this very quick and short addendum.

With regards to the Brazil ETF (EWZ), well, I guess I’d just take the lazy way out and cut and paste what I wrote on IN on the 9th June 2017:

https://www.investingnote.com/posts/125750

592) IN post on EWZ.jpg

Now, with regards to how to structure a position… all I can say is: Just use common sense!

There are many many “strategies” with damn fancy names: Long Straddle, Strangle, Covered Collars, Iron Condor blah blah blah.

I used to study each in detail until I realized, hey this is a total waste of my time. A lot of what’s in the strategy is just simply common sense.

So to all those of you who have emailed me with fancy strategies… you’re wasting your time. In fact, I can’t even remember off-hand the bulk of it, except the very common ones.

So what was my options strategy when it came to EWZ?

Read the post above and maybe you can tell me, cos I don’t know any name for it. (There probably is a name for it)

All I know is that my nett entry price is US$33 and right now it’s at US$37.5 and I’m exiting tonight. The excitement and fear from the scandal has since died down. (No channelnewsasia article on it anymore!)

To conclude: I don’t have a single all powerful strategy that will put you on the road to riches!

It’s really funny how the worlds of finance and healthcare are similar in this aspect: We all like to try to complicate things and give complicated names for something very simple.

I remember back when I was doing my training, once, when faced with a case with complications, an instructor told me and my partner (we have to pair up for clinics) to “change track and utilize an intensive, stepped-up chemo-mechanical holistic approach to treat this case”

We both looked at each other and wondered what new gadget do we have to use that we haven’t heard of. Or perhaps it’s a new medication? A new treatment modality?

Turns out she meant to tell us to continue doing the same thing that we’ve been doing, just do it for another 15mins longer.

zzzzzzzzzzzz

She could’ve just said “ok, just keep at it for another 15mins.”

But then, it wouldn’t sound as impressive.

Also, I’d have to keep emphasizing, that personally, I believe all options strategies still require a fundamental analysis, with an eye towards value. This is something that’s easily forgotten. Afterall, who wants to do the bloody hard work that FA entails. But THAT, is really the key. Can’t emphasize it enough.